Population of Cardiff: Current Estimates, Historical Trends, and Future Projections in 2025
Explore what is the population of Cardiff in 2025, from current mid-year estimates to historical growth patterns and future projections. This ultimate guide provides in-depth insights into Cardiff’s demographics, including key statistics and trends for residents, researchers, and visitors.
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Quick Summary: Key Population Facts for Cardiff
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Current Population (Mid-2024): Approximately 389,000 residents in the Cardiff local authority area, reflecting recent growth.
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Historical Milestone: Grew from just 6,342 in 1801 to over 362,000 by 2021, driven by industrialisation.
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Recent Growth Rate: 1.1% increase from mid-2023 to mid-2024, with significant contributions from migration.
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Future Outlook: Projections suggest reaching around 386,000 by 2040, though actual growth may exceed this based on recent trends.
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Population Density: About 2,641 people per square kilometre, making Cardiff one of the densest areas in Wales.
What is the Current Population of Cardiff in 2025?
As of mid-2024, the estimated population of Cardiff stands at approximately 389,000 people within the local authority area This figure is derived from official mid-year estimates, which account for births, deaths, and migration. Cardiff, as the capital of Wales, continues to attract residents due to its economic opportunities, universities, and cultural attractions.
The population has seen steady growth in recent years. From mid-2022 (372,089) to mid-2023, it increased by 3.4%, and then by 1.1% to mid-2024.” International and internal migration play a key role, with net positive inflows contributing to this expansion. For 2025, if trends continue, the population could approach 393,000.
Compared to the wider urban or metro area, which includes surrounding regions, the figure is higher—around 495,000 in 2025.
However, this guide focuses primarily on the Cardiff unitary authority for consistency with official statistics.
Historical Population Trends in Cardiff
Cardiff’s population has undergone dramatic changes over the centuries, transforming from a small town to a major city. Here’s a look at key historical data from census records:
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1801: 6,342 – A modest market town.
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1851: 26,630 (320% increase) – Early industrialisation begins.
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1901: 172,629 – Rapid growth due to coal exports and port development.
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1951: 267,356 – Post-war stability.
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1981: 274,500 – Slight decline in the 1970s-1980s due to economic shifts.
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2001: 292,150 (7% increase from 1991) – Renewal with urban development.
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2011: 346,090 – Significant growth from migration and economic boom.
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2021: 362,310 – Continued upward trend.
The 19th century saw explosive growth, with the population multiplying due to the coal industry and immigration from England and abroad. By the early 20th century, Cardiff was one of the world’s busiest ports. Recent decades have shown recovery and acceleration, with a 4.7% increase from 2011 to 2021.
Future Population Projections for Cardiff
Looking ahead, population projections for Cardiff indicate continued growth, though estimates vary based on assumptions about migration, births, and deaths. Using 2018-based projections from Stats Wales:
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2025: 374,379
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2030: 377,033
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2035: 380,800
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2040: 386,225
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2043: 388,890
These figures project a modest increase of about 24,642 from 2018 to 2043. However, recent actual growth has outpaced these projections—Cardiff’s population reached around 389,000 by mid-2024, already surpassing the 2043 estimate. This suggests future growth could be higher if migration trends continue.
National projections for Wales show a 5.9% increase by 2032 and 10.3% by 2047, driven by aging populations and net migration. For Cardiff, factors like urban development, job opportunities, and student inflows could accelerate this.
Note: Newer 2022-based subnational projections may provide updated figures, but as of 2025, recent estimates highlight faster-than-expected growth.
Practical Insights on Cardiff’s Population Dynamics
Cardiff’s population influences everything from housing to public services. With a diverse demographic—including a large student population from Cardiff University and other institutions—the city is vibrant and multicultural. Population density is high at 2,641 people per km², contributing to a bustling urban environment.
For those interested in demographics, monitoring annual mid-year estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is essential for the latest data.
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Definitions: Key Terms in Population Studies
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Mid-Year Population Estimate: An annual estimate of a region’s population as of June 30, accounting for births, deaths, and migration, produced by the ONS.
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Census: A comprehensive count of a country’s population every 10 years, providing detailed demographic data (e.g., UK Census 2021).
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Population Projection: A forecast of future population size based on current trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
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Natural Change: The difference between births and deaths in a population.
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Net Migration: The difference between people moving into and out of an area.
FAQs: Your Questions on Cardiff’s Population Answered
Q: What is the current population of Cardiff in 2025?
A: As of mid-2024, Cardiff’s population is estimated at around 389,000 in the local authority area, with projections for mid-2025 slightly higher.
Q: How has Cardiff’s population changed historically?
A: Cardiff grew rapidly in the 19th century from under 7,000 in 1801 to over 172,000 by 1901, driven by the coal industry, with steady growth continuing into the 21st century.
Q: What are the future population projections for Cardiff?
A: Based on 2018 projections, Cardiff could reach 386,000 by 2040, but recent growth rates suggest it may exceed this, potentially hitting 400,000 sooner.
Q: Why is Cardiff’s population growing?
A: Growth is fuelled by net migration (international and internal), higher birth rates in some areas, and economic attractions like jobs and education.
Q: How does Cardiff’s population compare to other UK cities?
A: Cardiff is the largest city in Wales and ranks among the top 20 in the UK, with a metro population around 495,000, similar to cities like Manchester or Edinburgh in urban scale.
Source: ONS, Cardiff Council, Wales